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Pazarspor vs Gümüşhanespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Pazarspor
Pazarspor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gümüşhanespor
Gümüşhanespor
9/27/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundPazar İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pazarspor67%
×Draw28%
Gümüşhanespor5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pazarspor
1.33
Gümüşhanespor
0.20

Pazarspor creates 565% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pazarspor
1.67
Gümüşhanespor
0.40

allows per match

Pazarspor
0.00
Gümüşhanespor
1.00

finishing

Pazarspor+0.00on par
Gümüşhanespor+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

87%No
  • No87
  • Yes13

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pazarspor ↓

Gümüşhanespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–14%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–029%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–14%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (29%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Pazarspor or draw
95%
Pazarspor or Gümüşhanespor
72%
Draw or Gümüşhanespor
33%

Winning margin

Pazarspor wins by 2+
34%
Gümüşhanespor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Pazarspor 1+ goals
74%
Pazarspor 2+ goals
38%
Pazarspor 3+ goals
15%
Gümüşhanespor 1+ goals
18%
Gümüşhanespor 2+ goals
2%
Gümüşhanespor 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Pazarspor (draw refunded)
92%
Gümüşhanespor (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
8%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pazarspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Gümüşhanespor away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pazarspor attack 1.67 + Gümüşhanespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gümüşhanespor attack 0.40 + Pazarspor defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Pazarspor scores more
67%
level
28%
Gümüşhanespor scores more
5%

Pazarspor at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Pazarspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Pazarspor 2–0 Gümüşhanespor

Pazarspor beat Gümüşhanespor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Pazar İlçe Stadyumu in Pazar.