Paysandu 0–1 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

Paysandu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Recife

Igor Cariús 64'

9/23/2024

Serie B · Round 28Estádio Leônidas Sodré de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Paysandu41%

×Draw28%

Sport Recife31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.06

Paysandu

1.27

Sport Recife

1.06

Paysandu creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.32

creates per match

0.87

1.25

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Paysandu

1.32

Sport Recife

0.87

allows per match

Paysandu

1.25

Sport Recife

1.21

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Paysandu-0.47scores less

Sport Recife-0.05on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

69%

Paysandu or Sport Recife

72%

Draw or Sport Recife

59%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

18%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

72%

Paysandu 2+ goals

36%

Paysandu 3+ goals

14%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

65%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

29%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

57%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.21 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.32 + Sport Recife defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sport Recife attack 0.87 + Paysandu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paysandu scores more

41%

level

28%

Sport Recife scores more

31%

Paysandu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Igor Cariús

Sport Recife · D

7.7

Match Events

-5'

4'

8'

35'

35'

46'

46'

Chrystian Barletta← Pedro Martins

54'

João Vieira

64'

Igor Cariús↳ Zé Roberto

69'

J. Tagueu← Nicolas

69'

E. García← Jean Dias

77'

Netinho← Matheus Trindade

77'

Robinho← Juninho

78'

Dieguinho← Zé Roberto

82'

Benjamín Borasi

85'

Y. González← B. Borasi

85'

Luciano Castán← Lucas Lima

86'

Alisson Cassiano← Igor Cariús

89'

Diego Vitor Costa Dominguez

90+8'

Felipe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduSport

Overview

62%Possession38%

8Total Shots7

9Corners1

15Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots7

2On Target3

5Off Target4

1Blocked0

4Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

423Total Passes272

341Accurate Passes202

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls16

5Yellow Cards4

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Paysandu vs Sport Recife

Sport Recife beat Paysandu 1-0 in Serie B on September 23, 2024.

Goals: Igor Cariús (64').

Paysandu controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estádio Leônidas Sodré de Castro in Belém, Pará.

Paysandu vs Sport Recife — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Paysandu vs Sport Recife