Paysandu 1–2 Operario-PR: Result & Stats | Serie B

Paysandu

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Operario-PR

Diogo Oliveira 27'

Boschilia 50' (pen)

Neto Paraiba 40'

8/24/2025

Serie B · Round 23Leonidas Sodre de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Paysandu47%

×Draw25%

Operario-PR28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchOperario-PR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.15

Paysandu

1.58

Operario-PR

1.15

Paysandu creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.37

creates per match

1.07

1.22

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Paysandu

1.37

Operario-PR

1.07

allows per match

Paysandu

1.22

Operario-PR

1.78

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Paysandu-0.26scores less

Operario-PR+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Operario-PR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

72%

Paysandu or Operario-PR

75%

Draw or Operario-PR

53%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

24%

Operario-PR wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

79%

Paysandu 2+ goals

47%

Paysandu 3+ goals

21%

Operario-PR 1+ goals

68%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

32%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

63%

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Operario-PR away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.78 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.37 + Operario-PR defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Operario-PR attack 1.07 + Paysandu defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Paysandu scores more

47%

level

25%

Operario-PR scores more

28%

Paysandu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Boschilia

Operario-PR · M

8.0

Match Events

-5'

Vágner

10'

Andre Lima← Denner

27'

Diogo Oliveira↳ Mauricio Garcez

40'

Neto Paraiba↳ Boschilia

45+2'

Thiaguinho

46'

Diogo Mateus← Gabriel Souza

50'

BoschiliaPenalty

53'

Andre← Thiaguinho

54'

Miranda

57'

Ramón Martínez

57'

Paraíba

61'

Vinicius Mingotti← Kleiton

61'

Leo Silva← Neto Paraiba

68'

Marcelinho← Ramon Martinez

75'

Reverson

75'

MirandaRed card cancelled

81'

André Simplicio

81'

Dudu Vieira←

81'

Bryan Borges← Edilson

81'

J. Benitez← Marlon Douglas

85'

Elias Martello

85'

Jefferson← Cristiano

89'

Diogo Mateus

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduOperario-PR

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots6

2.85Expected Goals (xG)1.33

8Corners3

8Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots6

2On Target4

11Off Target0

2Blocked2

9Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

325Total Passes359

275Accurate Passes292

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls16

2Yellow Cards7

2Offsides2