Paysandu 1–1 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Paysandu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Criciuma

Timbó 6'

Liel 35'

9/22/2018

Serie B · Round 28Estádio Leônidas Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Paysandu40%

×Draw28%

Criciuma32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

Paysandu

1.25

Criciuma

1.07

Paysandu creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

1.32

creates per match

0.89

1.25

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Paysandu

1.32

Criciuma

0.89

allows per match

Paysandu

1.25

Criciuma

1.17

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Paysandu-0.47scores less

Criciuma+0.01on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

68%

Paysandu or Criciuma

72%

Draw or Criciuma

60%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

18%

Criciuma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

71%

Paysandu 2+ goals

36%

Paysandu 3+ goals

13%

Criciuma 1+ goals

66%

Criciuma 2+ goals

29%

Criciuma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

56%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.32 + Criciuma defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Criciuma attack 0.89 + Paysandu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Paysandu scores more

40%

level

28%

Criciuma scores more

32%

Paysandu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Timbó↳ Guilherme Santos

17'

Fábio Ferreira

35'

Liel↳ Alex Maranhão

45'

Hugo

45'

Perema

46'

Felipe Guedes← Willyam

60'

Claudinho← Magno

61'

Luiz Fernando← Iago

70'

Luiz Fernando

71'

Patrick← Joanderson

76'

Andrew← Alex Maranhão

77'

Alan Calbergue← Pedro Carmona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduCriciuma

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots5

11Corners4

11Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots5

4On Target1

7Off Target2

4Blocked2

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

340Total Passes286

259Accurate Passes193

76%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1