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Paysandu vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Paysandu
Paysandu
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avai
Avai
5/3/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 3Estádio Leônidas Sodré de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Paysandu42%
×Draw26%
Avai31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paysandu
1.41
Avai
1.17

Paysandu creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Paysandu
1.37
Avai
1.13

allows per match

Paysandu
1.22
Avai
1.44

finishing

Paysandu-0.26scores less
Avai+0.05on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Avai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw
69%
Paysandu or Avai
74%
Draw or Avai
58%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+
20%
Avai wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals
76%
Paysandu 2+ goals
41%
Paysandu 3+ goals
17%
Avai 1+ goals
69%
Avai 2+ goals
33%
Avai 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)
58%
Avai (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Avai away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.37 + Avai defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Avai attack 1.13 + Paysandu defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paysandu scores more
42%
level
26%
Avai scores more
31%

Paysandu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Matheus NogueiraPaysanduPaysandu · G
7.5

Match Events

28'
Maurício Garcez
44'
Jean Dias
46'
E. García← Edinho
54'
Nicolas
55'
Yefferson Quintana
57'
Luan Freitas← Jean Dias
60'
Pedrinho← Maurício Garcez
60'
Gabriel Poveda← Judson
69'
Wesley Fraga← João Vieira
69'
Juninho← Val Soares
72'
Jean Lucas← Giovanni
72'
Zé Ricardo← Willian Maranhão
77'
Michel Macedo← Edílson
79'
Ronaldo Henrique← Pedro Castro
83'
Luan Freitas
87'
Leandro Vilela

Possession

48%Paysandu

Shots

11Paysandu

Pass accuracy

49%Paysandu

Statistics

PaysanduAvai
Overview
48%Possession52%
11Total Shots9
7Corners2
14Fouls5
Shots
11Total Shots9
3On Target2
4Off Target2
4Blocked5
5Inside Box4
6Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
356Total Passes401
271Accurate Passes322
76%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls5
4Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Paysandu 0 – 0 Avai

Paysandu and Avai drew 0-0 in Serie B on May 3, 2024.

Avai controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Leônidas Sodré de Castro in Belém, Pará.