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Paynesville vs Wologizi — LFA First Division 2020

Paynesville
Paynesville
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Wologizi
Wologizi
4/29/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Paynesville52%
×Draw22%
Wologizi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paynesville
2.01
Wologizi
1.37

Paynesville creates 47% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 14 away

creates per match

Paynesville
2.02
Wologizi
1.29

allows per match

Paynesville
1.45
Wologizi
2.00

finishing

Paynesville+0.00on par
Wologizi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paynesville ↓

Wologizi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Paynesville or draw
74%
Paynesville or Wologizi
78%
Draw or Wologizi
48%

Winning margin

Paynesville wins by 2+
30%
Wologizi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paynesville 1+ goals
87%
Paynesville 2+ goals
59%
Paynesville 3+ goals
32%
Wologizi 1+ goals
75%
Wologizi 2+ goals
40%
Wologizi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Paynesville (draw refunded)
67%
Wologizi (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paynesville at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Wologizi away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paynesville attack 2.02 + Wologizi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.01

Wologizi attack 1.29 + Paynesville defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Paynesville scores more
52%
level
22%
Wologizi scores more
26%

Paynesville at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Paynesville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paynesville vs Wologizi

Paynesville beat Wologizi 4-2 in LFA First Division on April 29, 2026.