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Paynesville vs LPRC Oilers — LFA First Division 2020

Paynesville
Paynesville
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
11/6/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 8Doris Williams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Paynesville41%
×Draw24%
LPRC Oilers36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paynesville
1.63
LPRC Oilers
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 75 away

creates per match

Paynesville
2.02
LPRC Oilers
1.60

allows per match

Paynesville
1.45
LPRC Oilers
1.24

finishing

Paynesville+0.00on par
LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paynesville ↓

LPRC Oilers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Paynesville or draw
64%
Paynesville or LPRC Oilers
76%
Draw or LPRC Oilers
59%

Winning margin

Paynesville wins by 2+
20%
LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Paynesville 1+ goals
80%
Paynesville 2+ goals
48%
Paynesville 3+ goals
22%
LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
78%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
45%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Paynesville (draw refunded)
53%
LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paynesville at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paynesville attack 2.02 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.63

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + Paynesville defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paynesville scores more
41%
level
24%
LPRC Oilers scores more
36%

Paynesville at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paynesville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Paynesville 0–1 LPRC Oilers

LPRC Oilers beat Paynesville 1-0 in LFA First Division on November 6, 2024.

The match was played at Doris Williams Stadium in Buchanan.