Paynesville 0–2 Heaven Eleven: Result & Stats

Paynesville

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Heaven Eleven

Unknown 68' (OG)

N. Junior 57'

2/14/2025

LFA First Division · Round 18Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Paynesville44%

×Draw23%

Heaven Eleven33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaynesvilleExpected goals in this matchHeaven Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.50

Paynesville

1.76

Heaven Eleven

1.50

Paynesville creates 17% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 60 away

2.02

creates per match

1.55

1.45

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Paynesville

2.02

Heaven Eleven

1.55

allows per match

Paynesville

1.45

Heaven Eleven

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paynesville+0.00on par

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paynesville ↓

Heaven Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Paynesville or draw

67%

Paynesville or Heaven Eleven

77%

Draw or Heaven Eleven

56%

Winning margin

Paynesville wins by 2+

23%

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Paynesville 1+ goals

83%

Paynesville 2+ goals

52%

Paynesville 3+ goals

26%

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals

78%

Heaven Eleven 2+ goals

44%

Heaven Eleven 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Paynesville (draw refunded)

57%

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paynesville at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paynesville attack 2.02 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.76

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + Paynesville defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Paynesville scores more

44%

level

23%

Heaven Eleven scores more

33%

Paynesville at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Paynesville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

N. Junior

68'

Own goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff