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Paykan vs ZOB Ahan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
12/8/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 12Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Paykan33%
×Draw32%
ZOB Ahan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
0.93
ZOB Ahan
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 116 away

creates per match

Paykan
0.78
ZOB Ahan
0.91

allows per match

Paykan
1.04
ZOB Ahan
1.07

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
65%
Paykan or ZOB Ahan
68%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
67%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
12%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
61%
Paykan 2+ goals
24%
Paykan 3+ goals
7%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
62%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
26%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
48%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 102 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.78 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

ZOB Ahan attack 0.91 + Paykan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Paykan scores more
33%
level
32%
ZOB Ahan scores more
35%

ZOB Ahan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paykan vs ZOB Ahan

Paykan and ZOB Ahan drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.