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Paykan vs Tractor Sazi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
5/24/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 28Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Paykan28%
×Draw31%
Tractor Sazi41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
0.86
Tractor Sazi
1.10

Tractor Sazi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 115 away

creates per match

Paykan
0.78
Tractor Sazi
1.17

allows per match

Paykan
1.04
Tractor Sazi
0.94

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
59%
Paykan or Tractor Sazi
69%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
72%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
9%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
58%
Paykan 2+ goals
21%
Paykan 3+ goals
6%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
67%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
30%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
41%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 102 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.78 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Tractor Sazi attack 1.17 + Paykan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paykan scores more
28%
level
31%
Tractor Sazi scores more
41%

Tractor Sazi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paykan vs Tractor Sazi

Paykan and Tractor Sazi drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.