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Paykan vs Sepidrood Rasht — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
9/28/2018Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 8Shahr-e Qods Stadium (Shahr-e Qods)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Paykan43%
×Draw30%
Sepidrood Rasht27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
1.16
Sepidrood Rasht
0.85

Paykan creates 36% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Paykan
0.78
Sepidrood Rasht
0.67

allows per match

Paykan
1.04
Sepidrood Rasht
1.53

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
73%
Paykan or Sepidrood Rasht
70%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
57%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
18%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
69%
Paykan 2+ goals
32%
Paykan 3+ goals
11%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
57%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
21%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
62%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 102 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.78 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.67 + Paykan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Paykan scores more
43%
level
30%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
27%

Paykan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paykan vs Sepidrood Rasht

Paykan beat Sepidrood Rasht 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on September 28, 2018.

The match was played at Shahr-e Qods Stadium (Shahr-e Qods).