Paykan 0–1 Sepahan FC: Result & Stats

Paykan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sepahan FC

M. Hosseini 70'

5/9/2022

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 26Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Paykan24%

×Draw30%

Sepahan FC45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaykanExpected goals in this matchSepahan FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.19

Paykan

0.79

Sepahan FC

1.19

Sepahan FC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 101 away

0.76

creates per match

1.36

1.01

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Paykan

0.76

Sepahan FC

1.36

allows per match

Paykan

1.01

Sepahan FC

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Sepahan FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Paykan or draw

55%

Paykan or Sepahan FC

70%

Draw or Sepahan FC

76%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+

8%

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals

55%

Paykan 2+ goals

19%

Paykan 3+ goals

5%

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

70%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

33%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)

35%

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.82 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.76 + Sepahan FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.79

Sepahan FC attack 1.36 + Paykan defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paykan scores more

24%

level

30%

Sepahan FC scores more

45%

Sepahan FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

E. Salehi← P. Ranjbari

61'

M. Haghdoust← M. Fallah

70'

M. Hosseini

71'

Y. Salmani← S. Rafiei

71'

R. Mirzaei← S. Shahbazzadeh

77'

T. Okello← A. Ramezani

77'

M. Lotfi← M. Ghaseminejad

81'

A. Yousefi← M. Hosseini

84'

D. Jahanbakhsh← A. Jeddi

Paykan

Sepahan

45

Mazaheri

2

Nejadmahd

73

▼

6

8

19

17

9

▼

Shahbazza

7

⚽

▼

11

70

22

16

2

▼

Jeddi

19

▼

Ramezani

13

▼

88

3

4

66

39

▼

Ranjbari

77

▼

Fallah

Manager: M. Hoseini

61'▲E. Salehi←▼P. Ranjbari

61'▲M. Haghdoust←▼M. Fallah

77'▲T. Okello←▼A. Ramezani

77'▲M. Lotfi←▼M. Ghaseminejad

84'▲D. Jahanbakhsh←▼A. Jeddi

Paykan substitutes

9Salehi74Haghdoust91Okello79Lotfi18Jahanbakhsh

Manager: M. Navidkia

71'▲Y. Salmani←▼S. Rafiei

71'▲R. Mirzaei←▼S. Shahbazzadeh

81'▲A. Yousefi←▼M. Hosseini

Sepahan FC substitutes

80Salmani77Mirzaei14Yousefi