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Paykan vs Persepolis FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
10/19/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 6Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Paykan22%
×Draw30%
Persepolis FC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
0.72
Persepolis FC
1.21

Persepolis FC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 116 away

creates per match

Paykan
0.78
Persepolis FC
1.39

allows per match

Paykan
1.04
Persepolis FC
0.66

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–118%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
52%
Paykan or Persepolis FC
70%
Draw or Persepolis FC
78%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
6%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
51%
Paykan 2+ goals
16%
Paykan 3+ goals
4%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
70%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
34%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
32%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 102 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.66 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.78 + Persepolis FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.72

Persepolis FC attack 1.39 + Paykan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Paykan scores more
22%
level
30%
Persepolis FC scores more
48%

Persepolis FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Paykan 1–3 Persepolis FC

Persepolis FC beat Paykan 3-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.