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Paykan vs Machine Sazi FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
2/5/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 14Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Paykan41%
×Draw31%
Machine Sazi FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
1.09
Machine Sazi FC
0.84

Paykan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 45 away

creates per match

Paykan
0.78
Machine Sazi FC
0.64

allows per match

Paykan
1.04
Machine Sazi FC
1.40

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
72%
Paykan or Machine Sazi FC
69%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
59%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
17%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
66%
Paykan 2+ goals
30%
Paykan 3+ goals
10%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
57%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
21%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
60%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 102 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.78 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.09

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.64 + Paykan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paykan scores more
41%
level
31%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
28%

Paykan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Paykan 2–2 Machine Sazi FC

Paykan and Machine Sazi FC drew 2-2 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 5, 2021.

The match was played at Shahr-e Qods Stadium in Shahr-e Qods.