Paykan 2–2 Fajr Sepasi: Result & Stats

Paykan

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Fajr Sepasi

F. Amiri 37'

F. Emamali 5'

S. Bozorg 90' (pen)

M. Mousavi 13'

11/1/2025

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 9Grand Shiraz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Paykan38%

×Draw33%

Fajr Sepasi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaykanExpected goals in this matchFajr Sepasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.82

Paykan

0.97

Fajr Sepasi

0.82

Paykan creates 18% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 27 away

0.76

creates per match

0.63

1.01

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Paykan

0.76

Fajr Sepasi

0.63

allows per match

Paykan

1.01

Fajr Sepasi

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Fajr Sepasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Paykan or draw

71%

Paykan or Fajr Sepasi

67%

Draw or Fajr Sepasi

62%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+

14%

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals

62%

Paykan 2+ goals

25%

Paykan 3+ goals

7%

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

56%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

20%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)

56%

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.76 + Fajr Sepasi defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Fajr Sepasi attack 0.63 + Paykan defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Paykan scores more

38%

level

33%

Fajr Sepasi scores more

29%

Paykan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

F. Emamali

13'

M. Mousavi↳ A. Helichi

23'

M. Bagheri

37'

F. Amiri↳ F. Emamali

45+1'

F. Amiri

46'

A. Vosoughifard← S. Zare

46'

S. Bozorg← M. Haghdoost

46'

F. Firooz← A. Helichi

54'

M. Najafi← M. Azarpad

70'

Y. Key Shams← F. Esmaeili

70'

H. Nokhodkar← M. Motlaghzadeh

72'

M. Bagheri← N. Entezari

72'

O. Fahmi Maleki← A. Sadeghi

74'

O. Fahmi Maleki

86'

M. Tabrizi← F. Emamali

86'

A. Madadizadeh← F. Amiri

90'

S. BozorgPenalty

Paykan

Fajr

1

Gholamzad

11

Moradi

21

Azhir

15

⚽

Mousavi

3

A

▼

Helichi

8

▼

Esmaeili

13

▼

Haghdoost

6

Rigi

66

▼

Motlaghza

7

▼

17

1

12

5

4

27

10

23

▼

Azarpad

28

▼

Entezari

11

⚽

▼

Amiri

9

⚽A

▼

Emamali

80

▼

Sadeghi

Manager: R. Enayati

54'▲M. Najafi←▼M. Azarpad

72'▲M. Bagheri←▼N. Entezari

72'▲O. Fahmi Maleki←▼A. Sadeghi

86'▲M. Tabrizi←▼F. Emamali

86'▲A. Madadizadeh←▼F. Amiri

Paykan substitutes

6Bagheri16TabriziAlimoradi18Madadizadeh22Esfandiari32Hardani70Karami77Jamshidi79Rafiei81Maleki8Najafi

Manager: M. Sarasiaei

46'▲A. Vosoughifard←▼S. Zare

46'▲S. Bozorg←▼M. Haghdoost

46'▲F. Firooz←▼A. Helichi

70'▲Y. Key Shams←▼F. Esmaeili

70'▲H. Nokhodkar←▼M. Motlaghzadeh

Fajr Sepasi substitutes

Vosoughifard5Shahabassi9Bozorg10Shams18Rezaei23Firooz30Taher70Nokhodkar98Rezaei