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Paykan vs Esteghlal FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
6/1/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 30Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Paykan24%
×Draw31%
Esteghlal FC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
0.77
Esteghlal FC
1.17

Esteghlal FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 116 away

creates per match

Paykan
0.78
Esteghlal FC
1.30

allows per match

Paykan
1.04
Esteghlal FC
0.75

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
55%
Paykan or Esteghlal FC
69%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
76%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
7%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
54%
Paykan 2+ goals
18%
Paykan 3+ goals
4%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
69%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
33%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
35%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 102 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.78 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Esteghlal FC attack 1.30 + Paykan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paykan scores more
24%
level
31%
Esteghlal FC scores more
45%

Esteghlal FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Paykan 0–2 Esteghlal FC

Esteghlal FC beat Paykan 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.