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Paykan vs Be'sat Kermanshah — Azadegan League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Be'sat Kermanshah
Be'sat Kermanshah
A. Jabouri 90'
10/16/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 7Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paykan52%
×Draw31%
Be'sat Kermanshah17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
1.21
Be'sat Kermanshah
0.57

Paykan creates 112% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

creates per match

Paykan
1.35
Be'sat Kermanshah
0.55

allows per match

Paykan
0.59
Be'sat Kermanshah
1.06

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Be'sat Kermanshah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
83%
Paykan or Be'sat Kermanshah
69%
Draw or Be'sat Kermanshah
48%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
24%
Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
70%
Paykan 2+ goals
34%
Paykan 3+ goals
12%
Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals
43%
Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals
11%
Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
75%
Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Be'sat Kermanshah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 1.35 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.55 + Paykan defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Paykan scores more
52%
level
31%
Be'sat Kermanshah scores more
17%

Paykan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
A. Jabouri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paykan vs Be'sat Kermanshah

Be'sat Kermanshah beat Paykan 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 16, 2024.

Goals: A. Jabouri (90').

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.