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Pawłowice Śląskie vs Podlesianka — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Podlesianka
Podlesianka
D. Hanzel 12' (pen)
5/21/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie43%
×Draw23%
Podlesianka34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.78
Podlesianka
1.55

Pawłowice Śląskie creates 15% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.85
Podlesianka
1.47

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.63
Podlesianka
1.71

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par
Podlesianka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Podlesianka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw
66%
Pawłowice Śląskie or Podlesianka
77%
Draw or Podlesianka
57%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
23%
Podlesianka wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
83%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
53%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
26%
Podlesianka 1+ goals
79%
Podlesianka 2+ goals
46%
Podlesianka 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
56%
Podlesianka (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Podlesianka away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Podlesianka defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Podlesianka attack 1.47 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
43%
level
23%
Podlesianka scores more
34%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
12'
D. HanzelPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Pawłowice Śląskie 1–0 Podlesianka

Pawłowice Śląskie beat Podlesianka 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 21, 2025.

Goals: D. Hanzel (12' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Pniówek in Pawłowice Śląskie.