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Pawłowice Śląskie vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
5/4/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie48%
×Draw22%
Piast Żmigród31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.98
Piast Żmigród
1.56

Pawłowice Śląskie creates 27% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.85
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.63
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw
69%
Pawłowice Śląskie or Piast Żmigród
78%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
52%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
27%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
86%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
59%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
31%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
79%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
46%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
61%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.98

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
48%
level
22%
Piast Żmigród scores more
31%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pawłowice Śląskie vs Piast Żmigród

Pawłowice Śląskie beat Piast Żmigród 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Pniówek in Pawłowice Śląskie.