Pawłowice Śląskie 0–7 Górnik Polkowice

Pawłowice Śląskie

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

Górnik Polkowice

K. Frankowski 83'

S. Skrzypczak 80', 71', 45', 32'

M. Nagrodzki 56', 13'

5/13/2026

III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 31Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie38%

×Draw24%

Górnik Polkowice38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pawłowice ŚląskieExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.59

Górnik Polkowice

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

1.85

creates per match

1.55

1.63

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.85

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.63

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw

62%

Pawłowice Śląskie or Górnik Polkowice

76%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

62%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+

19%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals

80%

Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals

47%

Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals

21%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

80%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

47%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)

50%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.59

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more

38%

level

24%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

38%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

32'

45'

56'

71'

80'

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff