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Pavlikeni vs Yantra Gabrovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
FT
1 – 2
Yantra Gabrovo
Yantra Gabrovo
9/23/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 7Stadion Gancho Panov (Pavlikeni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pavlikeni30%
×Draw23%
Yantra Gabrovo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
1.44
Yantra Gabrovo
1.85

Yantra Gabrovo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Yantra Gabrovo
2.60

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Yantra Gabrovo
1.13

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Yantra Gabrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
53%
Pavlikeni or Yantra Gabrovo
77%
Draw or Yantra Gabrovo
70%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
14%
Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
76%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
42%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
18%
Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals
84%
Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals
55%
Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
39%
Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Yantra Gabrovo away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Yantra Gabrovo attack 2.60 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
30%
level
23%
Yantra Gabrovo scores more
47%

Yantra Gabrovo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pavlikeni vs Yantra Gabrovo

Yantra Gabrovo beat Pavlikeni 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Gancho Panov (Pavlikeni).