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Pavlikeni vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
CANC
00:00
Tryavna
Tryavna
3/15/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 15Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Pavlikeni70%
×Draw18%
Tryavna12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
2.32
Tryavna
0.85

Pavlikeni creates 173% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 39 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
88%
Pavlikeni or Tryavna
82%
Draw or Tryavna
30%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
47%
Tryavna wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
90%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
67%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
40%
Tryavna 1+ goals
57%
Tryavna 2+ goals
21%
Tryavna 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
85%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.32

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
70%
level
18%
Tryavna scores more
12%

Pavlikeni at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pavlikeni vs Tryavna — Match Preview

Pavlikeni face Tryavna on March 15, 2020 in this Third League - Northwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Pavlikeni host Tryavna at Stadion Gancho Panov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.