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Pavlikeni vs Sevlievo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
FT
2 – 2
Sevlievo
Sevlievo
2/25/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 16Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Pavlikeni37%
×Draw26%
Sevlievo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
1.36
Sevlievo
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 94 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Sevlievo
1.62

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Sevlievo
0.99

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Sevlievo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Sevlievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
63%
Pavlikeni or Sevlievo
74%
Draw or Sevlievo
63%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
17%
Sevlievo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
74%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
39%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
16%
Sevlievo 1+ goals
74%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
39%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
50%
Sevlievo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Sevlievo away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Sevlievo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sevlievo attack 1.62 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
37%
level
26%
Sevlievo scores more
37%

Pavlikeni at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pavlikeni vs Sevlievo

Pavlikeni and Sevlievo drew 2-2 in Third League - Northwest on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gancho Panov in Pavlikeni.