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Pavlikeni vs Peshtera Galata — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
FT
2 – 0
Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
8/16/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 2Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pavlikeni73%
×Draw16%
Peshtera Galata11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
2.54
Peshtera Galata
0.89

Pavlikeni creates 185% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Peshtera Galata
0.69

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Peshtera Galata
3.34

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Peshtera Galata+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Peshtera Galata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
89%
Pavlikeni or Peshtera Galata
84%
Draw or Peshtera Galata
27%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
51%
Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
92%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
72%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
46%
Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
59%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
22%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
87%
Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Peshtera Galata away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Peshtera Galata defence 3.34 → ÷2 → 2.54

Peshtera Galata attack 0.69 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
73%
level
16%
Peshtera Galata scores more
11%

Pavlikeni at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pavlikeni vs Peshtera Galata

Pavlikeni beat Peshtera Galata 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gancho Panov in Pavlikeni.