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Pavlikeni vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
FT
1 – 0
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
10/4/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 9Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Pavlikeni64%
×Draw20%
Parva atomna16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
2.15
Parva atomna
0.97

Pavlikeni creates 122% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 47 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
84%
Pavlikeni or Parva atomna
80%
Draw or Parva atomna
36%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
40%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
88%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
63%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
36%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
62%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
25%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
80%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.15

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
64%
level
20%
Parva atomna scores more
16%

Pavlikeni at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pavlikeni 1 – 0 Parva atomna

Pavlikeni beat Parva atomna 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gancho Panov in Pavlikeni.