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Pavlikeni vs Partizan — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Partizan
Partizan
8/30/2025Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 2Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Pavlikeni56%
×Draw23%
Partizan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
1.83
Partizan
1.02

Pavlikeni creates 79% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 106 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Partizan
0.94

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Partizan
1.92

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Partizan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Partizan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
79%
Pavlikeni or Partizan
77%
Draw or Partizan
44%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
32%
Partizan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
84%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
54%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
28%
Partizan 1+ goals
64%
Partizan 2+ goals
27%
Partizan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
73%
Partizan (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Partizan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.92 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Partizan defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.83

Partizan attack 0.94 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
56%
level
23%
Partizan scores more
21%

Pavlikeni at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Pavlikeni 0–0 Partizan

Pavlikeni and Partizan drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Gancho Panov in Pavlikeni.