Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pavlikeni vs Lokomotiv Mezdra — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
10/19/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 8Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Pavlikeni48%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv Mezdra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
1.68
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.23

Pavlikeni creates 37% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 106 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.36

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.62

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
72%
Pavlikeni or Lokomotiv Mezdra
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra
52%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
25%
Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
81%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
50%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
24%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
35%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
63%
Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
48%
level
24%
Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
28%

Pavlikeni at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pavlikeni vs Lokomotiv Mezdra

Pavlikeni and Lokomotiv Mezdra drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gancho Panov in Pavlikeni.