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Pavlikeni vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
FT
2 – 1
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
5/13/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 27Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Pavlikeni62%
×Draw21%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
2.08
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.99

Pavlikeni creates 110% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 81 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.88

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.42

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
83%
Pavlikeni or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
79%
Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
38%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
38%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
87%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
61%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
34%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
63%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
26%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
78%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.08

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
62%
level
21%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
17%

Pavlikeni at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pavlikeni vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Pavlikeni beat Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gancho Panov in Pavlikeni.