Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pavlikeni vs Dunav Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
10/14/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 10Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pavlikeni37%
×Draw25%
Dunav Lom38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
1.37
Dunav Lom
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Dunav Lom
1.71

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Dunav Lom
1.00

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Dunav Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Dunav Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
62%
Pavlikeni or Dunav Lom
75%
Draw or Dunav Lom
63%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
17%
Dunav Lom wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
75%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
40%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
16%
Dunav Lom 1+ goals
75%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
41%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
49%
Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Dunav Lom away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Dunav Lom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dunav Lom attack 1.71 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
37%
level
25%
Dunav Lom scores more
38%

Dunav Lom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pavlikeni vs Dunav Lom

Dunav Lom beat Pavlikeni 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gancho Panov in Pavlikeni.