Pavlikeni 2–1 Botev Lukovit: Result & Stats

Pavlikeni

FT

2 – 1

Botev Lukovit

3/13/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 16Stadion Gancho Panov (Pavlikeni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pavlikeni58%

×Draw23%

Botev Lukovit19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PavlikeniExpected goals in this matchBotev Lukovit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.95

Pavlikeni

1.83

Botev Lukovit

0.95

Pavlikeni creates 93% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

1.74

creates per match

0.80

1.09

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Pavlikeni

1.74

Botev Lukovit

0.80

allows per match

Pavlikeni

1.09

Botev Lukovit

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Botev Lukovit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw

81%

Pavlikeni or Botev Lukovit

77%

Draw or Botev Lukovit

42%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+

33%

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals

84%

Pavlikeni 2+ goals

54%

Pavlikeni 3+ goals

28%

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

61%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

25%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)

75%

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pavlikeni scores more

58%

level

23%

Botev Lukovit scores more

19%

Pavlikeni at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff