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Pavlikeni vs Boruna Tsareva livada — Third League - Northwest 2018

Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
FT
1 – 0
Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
9/16/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 6Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pavlikeni66%
×Draw19%
Boruna Tsareva livada15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pavlikeni
2.18
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.91

Pavlikeni creates 140% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pavlikeni
1.74
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.72

allows per match

Pavlikeni
1.09
Boruna Tsareva livada
2.62

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par
Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Boruna Tsareva livada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw
85%
Pavlikeni or Boruna Tsareva livada
81%
Draw or Boruna Tsareva livada
34%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+
42%
Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals
89%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
64%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
37%
Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
60%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
23%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
82%
Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Boruna Tsareva livada away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.18

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 0.72 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Pavlikeni scores more
66%
level
19%
Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
15%

Pavlikeni at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Pavlikeni 1–0 Boruna Tsareva livada

Pavlikeni beat Boruna Tsareva livada 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gancho Panov in Pavlikeni.