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Paulistano MT vs Rondonopolis EC — Matogrossense 2 2024

Paulistano MT
Paulistano MT
FT
0 – 9
HT: 0 – 6
Rondonopolis EC
Rondonopolis EC
5/7/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Presidente Eurico Gaspar Dutra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Paulistano MT1%
×Draw4%
Rondonopolis EC95%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paulistano MT
0.33
Rondonopolis EC
4.17

Rondonopolis EC creates 1164% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Paulistano MT
0.33
Rondonopolis EC
3.33

allows per match

Paulistano MT
5.00
Rondonopolis EC
0.33

finishing

Paulistano MT+0.00on par
Rondonopolis EC+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulistano MT ↓

Rondonopolis EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–211%
0–315%
0–416%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (16%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Paulistano MT or draw
5%
Paulistano MT or Rondonopolis EC
96%
Draw or Rondonopolis EC
99%

Winning margin

Paulistano MT wins by 2+
0%
Rondonopolis EC wins by 2+
85%

Team goals

Paulistano MT 1+ goals
28%
Paulistano MT 2+ goals
4%
Paulistano MT 3+ goals
0%
Rondonopolis EC 1+ goals
98%
Rondonopolis EC 2+ goals
91%
Rondonopolis EC 3+ goals
75%

Draw no bet

Paulistano MT (draw refunded)
1%
Rondonopolis EC (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulistano MT at home — creates 0.33, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

Rondonopolis EC away — creates 3.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulistano MT attack 0.33 + Rondonopolis EC defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Rondonopolis EC attack 3.33 + Paulistano MT defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Paulistano MT scores more
1%
level
4%
Rondonopolis EC scores more
95%

Rondonopolis EC at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Rondonopolis EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paulistano MT vs Rondonopolis EC

Rondonopolis EC beat Paulistano MT 9-0 in Matogrossense 2 on May 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Presidente Eurico Gaspar Dutra in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso.