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Paulista vs Sao Carlos — Paulista Série B 2026

Paulista
Paulista
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
Filipinho 87'
5/25/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Dr. Jayme Pinheiro de Ulhôa Cintra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Paulista63%
×Draw23%
Sao Carlos14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paulista
1.72
Sao Carlos
0.66

Paulista creates 161% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

Paulista
2.00
Sao Carlos
0.61

allows per match

Paulista
0.70
Sao Carlos
1.44

finishing

Paulista+0.00on par
Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulista ↓

Sao Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Paulista or draw
86%
Paulista or Sao Carlos
77%
Draw or Sao Carlos
37%

Winning margin

Paulista wins by 2+
36%
Sao Carlos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Paulista 1+ goals
82%
Paulista 2+ goals
51%
Paulista 3+ goals
25%
Sao Carlos 1+ goals
48%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
14%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Paulista (draw refunded)
82%
Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulista at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Sao Carlos away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulista attack 2.00 + Sao Carlos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sao Carlos attack 0.61 + Paulista defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Paulista scores more
63%
level
23%
Sao Carlos scores more
14%

Paulista at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Paulista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

87'
Filipinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paulista vs Sao Carlos

Paulista beat Sao Carlos 1-0 in Paulista Série B on May 25, 2024.

Goals: Filipinho (87').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jayme Pinheiro de Ulhôa Cintra in Jundiaí, São Paulo.