Paulínia FU 3–1 Votoraty: Result & Stats

Paulínia FU

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Votoraty

H. Nicolas 86'

Caue Raphael 81'

Nicolas Araujo 19'

M. Alves 38'

6/20/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paulínia FU63%

×Draw20%

Votoraty17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paulínia FUExpected goals in this matchVotoraty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.05

Paulínia FU

2.20

Votoraty

1.05

Paulínia FU creates 110% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

0.60

1.50

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Paulínia FU

2.00

Votoraty

0.60

allows per match

Paulínia FU

1.50

Votoraty

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paulínia FU+0.00on par

Votoraty+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulínia FU ↓

Votoraty →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Paulínia FU or draw

83%

Paulínia FU or Votoraty

80%

Draw or Votoraty

37%

Winning margin

Paulínia FU wins by 2+

40%

Votoraty wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Paulínia FU 1+ goals

89%

Paulínia FU 2+ goals

64%

Paulínia FU 3+ goals

37%

Votoraty 1+ goals

65%

Votoraty 2+ goals

28%

Votoraty 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Paulínia FU (draw refunded)

79%

Votoraty (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulínia FU at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Votoraty away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulínia FU attack 2.00 + Votoraty defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Votoraty attack 0.60 + Paulínia FU defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Paulínia FU scores more

63%

level

20%

Votoraty scores more

17%

Paulínia FU at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Paulínia FU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Nicolas Araujo

38'

M. Alves

81'

Caue Raphael

86'

H. Nicolas

90+4'

D. Kauan

90+4'

D. Kauan

90+6'

Gabriel Xavier

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff