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Paulinia FU U20 vs SKA Brasil U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Paulinia FU U20
Paulinia FU U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SKA Brasil U20
SKA Brasil U20
Unknown 90+7'
S. Nickollas 9'
5/17/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Luís Perissinotto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paulinia FU U2036%
×Draw23%
SKA Brasil U2041%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paulinia FU U20
1.60
SKA Brasil U20
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Paulinia FU U20
1.60
SKA Brasil U20
1.20

allows per match

Paulinia FU U20
2.20
SKA Brasil U20
1.60

finishing

Paulinia FU U20+0.00on par
SKA Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulinia FU U20 ↓

SKA Brasil U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Paulinia FU U20 or draw
59%
Paulinia FU U20 or SKA Brasil U20
77%
Draw or SKA Brasil U20
64%

Winning margin

Paulinia FU U20 wins by 2+
18%
SKA Brasil U20 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Paulinia FU U20 1+ goals
80%
Paulinia FU U20 2+ goals
47%
Paulinia FU U20 3+ goals
22%
SKA Brasil U20 1+ goals
82%
SKA Brasil U20 2+ goals
51%
SKA Brasil U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Paulinia FU U20 (draw refunded)
47%
SKA Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulinia FU U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

SKA Brasil U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulinia FU U20 attack 1.60 + SKA Brasil U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

SKA Brasil U20 attack 1.20 + Paulinia FU U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paulinia FU U20 scores more
36%
level
23%
SKA Brasil U20 scores more
41%

SKA Brasil U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SKA Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
S. Nickollas
90+7'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paulinia FU U20 vs SKA Brasil U20

Paulinia FU U20 and SKA Brasil U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 17, 2024.

Goals: S. Nickollas (9'), ? (90+7').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Luís Perissinotto in Paulínia, São Paulo.