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Paulinia FU U20 vs RB Bragantino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Paulinia FU U20
Paulinia FU U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
R. dos Santos Ramos 53'
Gabriel Lopes 26'
K. Florez 13'
5/11/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Luís Perissinotto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paulinia FU U2018%
×Draw19%
RB Bragantino U2063%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paulinia FU U20
1.18
RB Bragantino U20
2.37

RB Bragantino U20 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

creates per match

Paulinia FU U20
1.60
RB Bragantino U20
2.54

allows per match

Paulinia FU U20
2.20
RB Bragantino U20
0.75

finishing

Paulinia FU U20+0.00on par
RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulinia FU U20 ↓

RB Bragantino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Paulinia FU U20 or draw
37%
Paulinia FU U20 or RB Bragantino U20
81%
Draw or RB Bragantino U20
82%

Winning margin

Paulinia FU U20 wins by 2+
7%
RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Paulinia FU U20 1+ goals
69%
Paulinia FU U20 2+ goals
33%
Paulinia FU U20 3+ goals
12%
RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
91%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
68%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Paulinia FU U20 (draw refunded)
22%
RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulinia FU U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

RB Bragantino U20 away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulinia FU U20 attack 1.60 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.54 + Paulinia FU U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Paulinia FU U20 scores more
18%
level
19%
RB Bragantino U20 scores more
63%

RB Bragantino U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
K. Florez
26'
Gabriel Lopes
53'
R. dos Santos Ramos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Paulinia FU U20 0–3 RB Bragantino U20

RB Bragantino U20 beat Paulinia FU U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 11, 2024.

Goals: K. Florez (13'), Gabriel Lopes (26'), R. dos Santos Ramos (53').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Luís Perissinotto in Paulínia, São Paulo.