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Paulinia FU U20 vs Metropolitano FC U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Paulinia FU U20
Paulinia FU U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Metropolitano FC U20
Metropolitano FC U20
Henrique 51'
Evandro 25'
Gui 90+2'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Luís Perissinotto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paulinia FU U2055%
×Draw20%
Metropolitano FC U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paulinia FU U20
2.30
Metropolitano FC U20
1.50

Paulinia FU U20 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Paulinia FU U20
1.60
Metropolitano FC U20
0.80

allows per match

Paulinia FU U20
2.20
Metropolitano FC U20
3.00

finishing

Paulinia FU U20+0.00on par
Metropolitano FC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 70No: 3070%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulinia FU U20 ↓

Metropolitano FC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Paulinia FU U20 or draw
75%
Paulinia FU U20 or Metropolitano FC U20
80%
Draw or Metropolitano FC U20
45%

Winning margin

Paulinia FU U20 wins by 2+
34%
Metropolitano FC U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paulinia FU U20 1+ goals
90%
Paulinia FU U20 2+ goals
67%
Paulinia FU U20 3+ goals
40%
Metropolitano FC U20 1+ goals
78%
Metropolitano FC U20 2+ goals
44%
Metropolitano FC U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Paulinia FU U20 (draw refunded)
69%
Metropolitano FC U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulinia FU U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Metropolitano FC U20 away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulinia FU U20 attack 1.60 + Metropolitano FC U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Metropolitano FC U20 attack 0.80 + Paulinia FU U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Paulinia FU U20 scores more
55%
level
20%
Metropolitano FC U20 scores more
25%

Paulinia FU U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Paulinia FU U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Evandro
51'
Henrique
88'
Luiz
90+2'
Gui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Paulinia FU U20 2–1 Metropolitano FC U20

Paulinia FU U20 beat Metropolitano FC U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: Evandro (25'), Henrique (51'), Gui (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Luís Perissinotto in Paulínia, São Paulo.