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Paulinia FU U20 vs Guarani U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Paulinia FU U20
Paulinia FU U20
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Guarani U20
Guarani U20
Unknown 62', 43', 37'
Unknown 86', 45+3', 14'
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Luís Perissinotto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paulinia FU U2025%
×Draw23%
Guarani U2052%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paulinia FU U20
1.21
Guarani U20
1.83

Guarani U20 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

Paulinia FU U20
1.60
Guarani U20
1.45

allows per match

Paulinia FU U20
2.20
Guarani U20
0.82

finishing

Paulinia FU U20+0.00on par
Guarani U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulinia FU U20 ↓

Guarani U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Paulinia FU U20 or draw
48%
Paulinia FU U20 or Guarani U20
77%
Draw or Guarani U20
75%

Winning margin

Paulinia FU U20 wins by 2+
10%
Guarani U20 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Paulinia FU U20 1+ goals
70%
Paulinia FU U20 2+ goals
34%
Paulinia FU U20 3+ goals
12%
Guarani U20 1+ goals
84%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
54%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Paulinia FU U20 (draw refunded)
33%
Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulinia FU U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Guarani U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulinia FU U20 attack 1.60 + Guarani U20 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.21

Guarani U20 attack 1.45 + Paulinia FU U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Paulinia FU U20 scores more
25%
level
23%
Guarani U20 scores more
52%

Guarani U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
37'
43'
45+3'
62'
86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Paulinia FU U20 3–3 Guarani U20

Paulinia FU U20 and Guarani U20 drew 3-3 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (14', 37', 43', 45+3', 62', 86').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Luís Perissinotto in Paulínia, São Paulo.