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PAU vs Valenciennes — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valenciennes
Valenciennes
M. Bassouamina 72'
9/17/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

PAU44%
×Draw27%
Valenciennes29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.38
Valenciennes
1.08

PAU creates 28% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 108 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Valenciennes
0.90

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Valenciennes
1.43

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Valenciennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PAU or draw
71%
PAU or Valenciennes
73%
Draw or Valenciennes
56%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
21%
Valenciennes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
75%
PAU 2+ goals
40%
PAU 3+ goals
16%
Valenciennes 1+ goals
66%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
29%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
60%
Valenciennes (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Valenciennes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Valenciennes attack 0.90 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

PAU scores more
44%
level
27%
Valenciennes scores more
29%

PAU at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
J. RuizPAUPAU · D
7.5

Match Events

26'
Jean Lambert Evan's Allan
33'
Mathieu Debuchy
40'
Sessi D'Almeida
48'
Mathieu Debuchy
48'
Mathieu Debuchy
59'
Ugo Bonnet
70'
David Gomis
71'
E. Sylvestre← S. DAlmeida
71'
P. Bâ← David Gomis
72'
M. Bassouamina↳ E. Sylvestre
73'
F. Ayité← L. Nomel
73'
A. Zinga← M. Noubissi
80'
D. Abzi← M. Yattara
80'
Nguyễn Quang Hải← M. Bassouamina
84'
M. Picouleau← J. Berthomier

Possession

55%PAU

Shots

14PAU

Pass accuracy

51%PAU

Statistics

PAUValenciennes
Overview
55%Possession45%
14Total Shots9
5Corners1
18Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots9
4On Target3
6Off Target4
4Blocked2
6Inside Box7
8Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
434Total Passes362
350Accurate Passes279
81%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: PAU vs Valenciennes

PAU beat Valenciennes 1-0 in Ligue 2 on September 17, 2022.

Goals: M. Bassouamina (72').

PAU controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Nouste Camp in Bizanos.