Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

PAU vs Reims — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Reims
Reims
O. Sissoko 26'
J. Ruiz 18'
8/25/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

PAU32%
×Draw26%
Reims42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.18
Reims
1.40

Reims creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 27 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Reims
1.52

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Reims
1.04

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

PAU or draw
58%
PAU or Reims
74%
Draw or Reims
68%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
13%
Reims wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
69%
PAU 2+ goals
33%
PAU 3+ goals
12%
Reims 1+ goals
75%
Reims 2+ goals
41%
Reims 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
43%
Reims (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Reims away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Reims defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Reims attack 1.52 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

PAU scores more
32%
level
26%
Reims scores more
42%

Reims at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
J. RuizPAUPAU · D
8.3

Match Events

18'
J. Ruiz↳ A. Bobichon
26'
O. Sissoko
42'
Zabi
46'
K. Gasnier← O. Sissoko
46'
D. Mohamed← A. Bojang
46'
H. Ibrahim← J. Siebatcheu
62'
R. Khadra← T. Diarra
66'
S. Karamoko← S. Beusnard
72'
Kante← J. Ruiz
74'
M. Busi← A. Tia
74'
O. Diakite← Zabi
75'
Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa
86'
S. Lebouath← G. Versini
86'
N. Glossoa← J. Kalulu
89'
Rayan Touzghar
90+6'
Kylian Gasnier
90+6'
Abdoul Kone

Possession

38%PAU

Shots

7PAU

Pass accuracy

47%PAU

Statistics

PAUReims
Overview
38%Possession62%
7Total Shots7
5Corners4
7Fouls16
Shots
7Total Shots7
5On Target1
1Off Target3
1Blocked3
5Inside Box3
2Outside Box4
Passing
38%Possession62%
309Total Passes505
241Accurate Passes441
78%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls16
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: PAU vs Reims

PAU beat Reims 2-0 in Ligue 2 on August 25, 2025.

Goals: J. Ruiz (18'), O. Sissoko (26').

Reims controlled possession (62%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Nouste Camp in Pau.