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PAU vs Nantes — Coupe de France 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Nantes
Nantesadvanced
1/5/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade du Hameau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PAU14%
×Draw19%
Nantes67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
0.95
Nantes
2.27

Nantes creates 139% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

PAU
1.00
Nantes
2.20

allows per match

PAU
2.33
Nantes
0.90

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Nantes+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Nantes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

PAU or draw
33%
PAU or Nantes
81%
Draw or Nantes
86%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
5%
Nantes wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
61%
PAU 2+ goals
25%
PAU 3+ goals
7%
Nantes 1+ goals
90%
Nantes 2+ goals
66%
Nantes 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
18%
Nantes (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Nantes away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.00 + Nantes defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Nantes attack 2.20 + PAU defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

PAU scores more
14%
level
19%
Nantes scores more
67%

Nantes at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PAU 1 – 4 Nantes

Nantes beat PAU 4-1 in Coupe de France on January 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Hameau in Pau.