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PAU vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Grenoble
Grenoble
S. Beusnard 63'
T. Pouilly 44'
L. Bernadou 90'
E. Maurin 78'
1/23/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 20Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

PAU41%
×Draw27%
Grenoble31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.31
Grenoble
1.10

PAU creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 145 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Grenoble
0.94

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Grenoble
1.30

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Grenoble →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PAU or draw
69%
PAU or Grenoble
73%
Draw or Grenoble
59%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
19%
Grenoble wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
73%
PAU 2+ goals
38%
PAU 3+ goals
14%
Grenoble 1+ goals
67%
Grenoble 2+ goals
30%
Grenoble 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
57%
Grenoble (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Grenoble defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Grenoble attack 0.94 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PAU scores more
41%
level
27%
Grenoble scores more
31%

PAU at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
S. BeusnardPAUPAU · M
8.3

Match Events

14'
Omar Sadik
44'
T. Pouilly
46'
A. Lallias← N. Zahui
58'
Gaëtan Paquiez
58'
L. Bernadou← S. Mambo
63'
S. Beusnard↳ O. Sadik
68'
C. Fall← A. Bobichon
68'
R. Messi← K. Dong
71'
M. Bangre← B. Mouazan
71'
E. Maurin← N. Elphege
78'
E. Maurin↳ G. Paquiez
84'
N. Glossoa← G. Versini
87'
S. Delos← M. Mion
89'
Clement Vidal
90+1'
S. Lebouath←
90'
L. Bernadou↳ G. Paquiez

Possession

58%PAU

Shots

19PAU

Pass accuracy

52%PAU

Statistics

PAUGrenoble
Overview
58%Possession42%
19Total Shots11
9Corners5
13Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots11
5On Target5
7Off Target3
7Blocked3
13Inside Box6
6Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
520Total Passes366
460Accurate Passes300
88%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

PAU 2 – 2 Grenoble

PAU and Grenoble drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on January 23, 2026.

Goals: T. Pouilly (44'), S. Beusnard (63'), E. Maurin (78'), L. Bernadou (90').

PAU controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Nouste Camp in Pau.