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Pattaya United vs Raj Pracha — Thai League 2 2018

Pattaya United
Pattaya United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
11/11/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pattaya United42%
×Draw28%
Raj Pracha30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pattaya United
1.28
Raj Pracha
1.02

Pattaya United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pattaya United
1.16
Raj Pracha
0.68

allows per match

Pattaya United
1.35
Raj Pracha
1.41

finishing

Pattaya United+0.00on par
Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pattaya United ↓

Raj Pracha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pattaya United or draw
70%
Pattaya United or Raj Pracha
72%
Draw or Raj Pracha
58%

Winning margin

Pattaya United wins by 2+
19%
Raj Pracha wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pattaya United 1+ goals
72%
Pattaya United 2+ goals
37%
Pattaya United 3+ goals
14%
Raj Pracha 1+ goals
64%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
27%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pattaya United (draw refunded)
59%
Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pattaya United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pattaya United attack 1.16 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Pattaya United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pattaya United scores more
42%
level
28%
Raj Pracha scores more
30%

Pattaya United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pattaya United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pattaya United vs Raj Pracha

Pattaya United beat Raj Pracha 1-0 in Thai League 2 on November 11, 2022.

The match was played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium in Samut Prakan.