Pattaya United 1–2 Krabi FC: Result & Stats

Pattaya United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Krabi FC

1/21/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 20Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Pattaya United51%

×Draw24%

Krabi FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pattaya UnitedExpected goals in this matchKrabi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.10

Pattaya United

1.68

Krabi FC

1.10

Pattaya United creates 53% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 40 away

1.16

creates per match

0.85

1.35

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Pattaya United

1.16

Krabi FC

0.85

allows per match

Pattaya United

1.35

Krabi FC

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pattaya United+0.00on par

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pattaya United ↓

Krabi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pattaya United or draw

75%

Pattaya United or Krabi FC

76%

Draw or Krabi FC

49%

Winning margin

Pattaya United wins by 2+

27%

Krabi FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pattaya United 1+ goals

81%

Pattaya United 2+ goals

50%

Pattaya United 3+ goals

24%

Krabi FC 1+ goals

67%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

30%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pattaya United (draw refunded)

67%

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pattaya United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.20 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pattaya United attack 1.16 + Krabi FC defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.68

Krabi FC attack 0.85 + Pattaya United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pattaya United scores more

51%

level

24%

Krabi FC scores more

25%

Pattaya United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pattaya United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff