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Pattaya United vs Esan Pattaya — Thai League 2 2018

Pattaya United
Pattaya United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
4/27/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 34Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pattaya United36%
×Draw27%
Esan Pattaya37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pattaya United
1.21
Esan Pattaya
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pattaya United
1.16
Esan Pattaya
1.10

allows per match

Pattaya United
1.35
Esan Pattaya
1.27

finishing

Pattaya United+0.00on par
Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pattaya United ↓

Esan Pattaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pattaya United or draw
63%
Pattaya United or Esan Pattaya
73%
Draw or Esan Pattaya
64%

Winning margin

Pattaya United wins by 2+
15%
Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pattaya United 1+ goals
70%
Pattaya United 2+ goals
34%
Pattaya United 3+ goals
12%
Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
71%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
35%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pattaya United (draw refunded)
49%
Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pattaya United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pattaya United attack 1.16 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Esan Pattaya attack 1.10 + Pattaya United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pattaya United scores more
36%
level
27%
Esan Pattaya scores more
37%

Esan Pattaya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Pattaya United 1–2 Esan Pattaya

Esan Pattaya beat Pattaya United 2-1 in Thai League 2 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium in Samut Prakan.