Pattaya United vs Chonburi FC — League #296 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
Pattaya United36%
Chonburi FC40%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 24 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pattaya United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pattaya United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches
Chonburi FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pattaya United attack 1.08 + Chonburi FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.47
Chonburi FC attack 1.23 + Pattaya United defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.57
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Chonburi FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Chonburi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Ratchaburi
Buriram United
BG Pathum United
Port FC
Chiangrai United
Muangthong United
Ayutthaya FC
PrachuapChonburi FC
Lamphun Warrior
Rayong FC
Sukhothai FC
Kanchanaburi
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Bangkok United
Uthai ThaniIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Pattaya United host Chonburi FC on Sunday, 20 March 2022 at 11:00. The match is part of the League #296 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Pattaya United vs Chonburi FC
Chonburi FC beat Pattaya United 2-1 in League #296 on March 20, 2022.
The match was played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium in Samut Prakan.