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Pattaya United vs Chiangmai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Pattaya United
Pattaya United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
4/23/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 33Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pattaya United37%
×Draw27%
Chiangmai FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pattaya United
1.27
Chiangmai FC
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 82 away

creates per match

Pattaya United
1.16
Chiangmai FC
1.20

allows per match

Pattaya United
1.35
Chiangmai FC
1.39

finishing

Pattaya United+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pattaya United ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pattaya United or draw
63%
Pattaya United or Chiangmai FC
73%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
63%

Winning margin

Pattaya United wins by 2+
16%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pattaya United 1+ goals
72%
Pattaya United 2+ goals
36%
Pattaya United 3+ goals
14%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
72%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
36%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pattaya United (draw refunded)
50%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pattaya United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pattaya United attack 1.16 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chiangmai FC attack 1.20 + Pattaya United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pattaya United scores more
37%
level
27%
Chiangmai FC scores more
37%

Pattaya United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pattaya United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Pattaya United 1–3 Chiangmai FC

Chiangmai FC beat Pattaya United 3-1 in Thai League 2 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium in Samut Prakan.