Pattaya United 1–1 Ayutthaya FC: Result & Stats

Pattaya United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ayutthaya FC

10/29/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 10Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pattaya United36%

×Draw27%

Ayutthaya FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pattaya UnitedExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.30

Pattaya United

1.27

Ayutthaya FC

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 101 away

1.16

creates per match

1.25

1.35

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Pattaya United

1.16

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Pattaya United

1.35

Ayutthaya FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pattaya United+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pattaya United ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pattaya United or draw

63%

Pattaya United or Ayutthaya FC

73%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

64%

Winning margin

Pattaya United wins by 2+

16%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pattaya United 1+ goals

72%

Pattaya United 2+ goals

36%

Pattaya United 3+ goals

14%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

73%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

37%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pattaya United (draw refunded)

49%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pattaya United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pattaya United attack 1.16 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Pattaya United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pattaya United scores more

36%

level

27%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

37%

Ayutthaya FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff