Pattaya United 0–0 Army United: Result & Stats

Pattaya United

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Army United

6/19/2019

FA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pattaya United26%

×Draw19%

Army United55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pattaya UnitedExpected goals in this matchArmy United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.67

Pattaya United

1.83

Army United

2.67

Army United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

5.33

0.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Pattaya United

3.00

Army United

5.33

allows per match

Pattaya United

0.00

Army United

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pattaya United+0.00on par

Army United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pattaya United ↓

Army United →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Pattaya United or draw

45%

Pattaya United or Army United

81%

Draw or Army United

74%

Winning margin

Pattaya United wins by 2+

13%

Army United wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Pattaya United 1+ goals

84%

Pattaya United 2+ goals

54%

Pattaya United 3+ goals

28%

Army United 1+ goals

93%

Army United 2+ goals

74%

Army United 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Pattaya United (draw refunded)

32%

Army United (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pattaya United at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Army United away — creates 5.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pattaya United attack 3.00 + Army United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Army United attack 5.33 + Pattaya United defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pattaya United scores more

26%

level

19%

Army United scores more

55%

Army United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Army United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff