Patronato vs San Martin S.J. — Primera Nacional 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 76+ matches
Patronato46%
San Martin S.J.24%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Patronato creates 55% more chances
Season form · 76 home / 102 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under69
- Over31
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No63
- Yes37
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Patronato ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Patronato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 76 matches
San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.12 · 102 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Patronato attack 1.24 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18
San Martin S.J. attack 0.75 + Patronato defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Patronato at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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Los AndesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Patronato host San Martin S.J. on Friday, 17 February 2023 at 21:00. The match is part of the Primera Nacional 2026/2027 season.
Patronato 1 – 2 San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J. beat Patronato 2-1 in Primera Nacional on February 17, 2023.
Goals: L. Bontempo (51'), J. Esquivel (65'), J. Villegas (78').
The match was played at Estadio Pedro Mutio in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.